美联储四年多来首次加息 点阵图显示后面连着还有9次

在结束两天的会议后，北京时间今天凌晨，美联储宣布加息25个基点。

这是2018年以来美国首次加息。

从新闻稿看，联储认为价格压力是普遍的，不只是能源价格，还有劳动力等，目前的失业率已明显下降（2月份美国CPI通胀率为7.9%，40年来最高；失业率为3.8%，已接近疫前水平）。

联储准备从下次会议开始，减少国债和机构债MBS的持有量。

投票委员中，圣路易斯联储主席James Bullard投票加息50个基点。

据FT报道，在会后的记者会上，联储主席鲍威尔谈到加息是为了应对高通胀和紧张的劳动力市场 extremely tight labor market in high inflation.

点阵图（dot plot，投票委员对利率区间的预测）显示，联储官员比三个月前调高了利率预测，预计2022年剩下的时间还将加息6次，2023年加息至少3次。联邦基金利率届时将达到2.8%，高于影响经济增长的“中性位置”（多数官员预测的中性利率为2.4%）。

美联储理事沃勒：2022年加息三次仍是良好的基准预测:1月14日消息，美联储理事沃勒：2022年加息三次仍是良好的基准预测，如果通货膨胀率居高不下，可能会有四次甚至五次的加息。可以容许缩表更早开始，不赞成美联储3月份加息50个基点。美联储可能会在夏季之前开始缩表。（金十）[2022/1/14 8:48:28]

美国CPI（1965-2022）

美国劳动参与率（1948-2022）

联储新闻稿如下：

March 16, 2022

美联储的有效联邦基金利率自1月以来首次下降:根据纽约联储数据，2月8日，有效联邦基金利率从上一交易日的0.08%降至0.07%，为1月以来首次下降；策略师预计有效联邦基金利率在月中走低，届时政府支持企业进入市场拉低利率，但是，这仍然并不意味着美联储近期会调整隔夜逆回购利率或超额准备金利率。[2021/2/10 19:22:39]

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

马斯克对于加密货币（的影响力）如同美联储主席鲍威尔之于股票:金融博客零对冲：马斯克对于加密货币（的影响力）如同美联储主席鲍威尔之于股票（的影响力）。（金十）[2021/2/8 19:15:11]

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.

声音 | 畅销书作家：比特币正在“挑战”美联储:日籍美国畅销书作家Robert Kiyosaki表示，随着美国联邦储备委员会和全球监管机构的介入，比特币已进入“大卫对战歌利亚”的局面。比特币和加密资产正在“承担美联储的任务”并向强大的监管机构发起挑战。Kiyosaki虽然没有直接支持比特币，但他承认自己对加密资产的了解较少，并鼓励交易员投资于他们支持的行业。据悉，Kiyosaki的财经类书籍《富爸爸，穷爸爸》销量超过3200万本。（cryptoglobe）[2019/10/25]

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting.

ICE首席执行官Jeffrey Sprecher：比起美联储，人们更相信中本聪:国际交易所（ICE），纽约证券交易所（NYSE）的所有者和经营者，正在密切关注新兴的加密货币交易市场。ICE首席执行官Jeffrey Sprecher在接受彭博社采访时表示，对加密货币进行折扣是不谨慎的，他不排除在交易所运营商的交易平台上推出加密货币期货合约的可能性。“这里有一种趋势，我们不能忽视，所以我不打折扣，”Sprecher说，“比起美联储，人们对一个没人见过的叫中本聪的人更有信心。”[2018/4/11]

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage point to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.

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